$2 NLHE 6-max: Bet size for max value vs suspected overpair

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partypoker – $0.02 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 229.5 BB
BTN: 132 BB (VPIP: 26.40, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, Hands: 258)
SB: 129 BB (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 19.81, 3Bet Preflop: 4.79, Hands: 3,723)
BB: 106 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 156.5 BB (VPIP: 29.15, PFR: 17.84, 3Bet Preflop: 4.14, Hands: 410)
MP: 167 BB (VPIP: 20.09, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.96, Hands: 1,080)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:heart: J:heart:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3:heart: J:diamond: 3:diamond:
UTG bets 5.5 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Turn: (18.5 BB, 2 players) J:club:
UTG checks, Hero checks

His turn check made me feel like he was afraid I had caught something on the flop and had now boated up. I had a feeling that I wasn’t going to get a lot of calls if I bet, so I decided to slowplay.
I figured that if I check through, he’s betting his entire range on the river, and probably bigger than he’s calling now.

River: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
UTG bets 18 BB, Hero raises to ???

His pot-sized bet threw me off. It made me think he was definitely beating the board and likely had an overpair. He only opens 8% UTG preflop, so the only hand that beats me is Ac3c which I don’t think is in his range.
I’m thinking I’m up against an overpair that likely won’t fold to a raise, or I’m chopping.

How’s my reasoning, and what should my raise size be to extract max value?


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