Very large variance swings

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I’m experiencing what I believe is unusually large variance, again and again, and I would like some other opinions. I play 25NL to 100NL both regular 6-max and 6-max zone on Bovada. I’ve put in a lot of work reading, analyzing hands via HM2 and Leakbuster. I feel like I know poker pretty well but my results don’t back that up.

If you look at my HM2 graph, I have some large positive and negative runs over 450,000 hands. After a small upswing I ran into the following in order:

1) A 3000 bb down swing.
2) A 5000 bb up swing.
3) A 4000 bb down swing.
4) A 3500 bb up swing.
5) A 5000 bb down swing.
6) A 4500 bb up swing.

My variance in HM2 is 7.34 which translates to 73.4/100 hands. When I plug this in to a variance simulator, I get the attached simulation graph. In the graph (and I’ve run it many times) generally the largest swings are about 2000 bb. Worst case simulations over 450,000 hands can be worse than what I’m seeing.

Finally, if you look at my Leakbuster analysis over the last 100,000 hands, an A seems pretty good. I keep telling myself that I just need to tough it out and I’ll break through. After 450,000 hands its getting hard to do that.
Am I the typical poker player who is not nearly as good as he thinks he is or am I the hard luck kid?

Attached Images
Variance Graph.jpg (26.2 KB)
Variance Sim.jpg (24.0 KB)
Leakbuster.jpg (30.6 KB)


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